Jared Gorbahn
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Academic study / Undergraduate special project

Thermal modelling of the Gorkha earthquake

A supervised geophysics project comparing four thermal scenarios with reported rupture limits for the 2015 Gorkha earthquake.

Student researcher and report author · supervised by Dr. Claire Currie · Updated 2026-09-11

Model geometry

Scroll across the model

Schematic cross-section of the thermal modelA 450 kilometre long and 150 kilometre deep model. Indian crust descends beneath Himalayan crust. Temperatures are extracted along the top of the Indian crust. Indian-side thermal inputs vary across four scenarios while Himalayan-side assumptions stay fixed.Indian-side thermal inputsVaried across four scenariosHimalayan-side inputsHeld constant across scenariosIndian crustsubductingHimalayan crustoverridingMantleTemperature extraction pathalong top of Indian crust450 km model length150 km model depth
Redrawn schematic, not to scale; model dimensions from my original report; no new solver results.

Research Question & My Role

My undergraduate project asked whether a simplified thermal model could help examine down-dip rupture limits on the Main Himalayan Thrust. I constructed the geometry and mesh, varied inputs, compared results, and wrote the interpretation. The work used Jiangheng He’s existing PGCtherm3D solver, with support from Juan Rosas and supervision from Dr. Claire Currie.

Method

I built a simplified cross-section in GiD, supplied thermal properties and geotherms to PGCtherm3D, and used ParaView to inspect temperatures along the modelled interface. Four scenarios varied Indian-crust inputs while retaining Himalayan-side assumptions.

Findings

The report preferred a warm scenario and found a hotter alternative broadly compatible with its adopted constraints; cooler scenarios placed interpreted transitions deeper. This comparison did not uniquely establish the real temperature field or predict a future earthquake.

Limits of the Evidence

The model simplified fault geometry, assumed steady conditions, omitted frictional heating, and included solver-required layers. A revision must reconcile heat-flow units and sign conventions, define numerical convergence criteria, and separate model selection from independent validation. The original inputs have not been rerun.

What I Take Into Engineering

The transferable practice is sensitivity to assumptions: vary inputs, retain evidence, and state where a persuasive visualisation stops supporting the interpretation.

What I Would Test Next

I would create a reproducible input set, audit units, test mesh convergence and boundary placement, and compare results with independent heat-flow and seismic-depth observations. AI was not part of the documented workflow; any future organisational aid would remain subordinate to solver validation and physical interpretation.

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